How Buhari won the 2015 Presidential election
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Posted by Felix Okoli on Tuesday May 12, 2015 at 17:49:24:
A former military ruler and army General has made history in Nigeria in becoming the first presidential candidate to defeat an incumbent president in a democratic election. How did he do it?Well, it didn't come easy given the fact that this was not his first attempt at winning the top job as a civilian. In fact, he had tried to win majority votes for more than 3 times since 2003. It was probably easier to get into power through a military coup than through votes during a civilian administration.General Muhammaded Buhari first came into power and ruled Nigeria during his youthful days in December 1983 after taking power from a democratically elected civilian government led by a fellow northerner named Shehu Shagari but only ruled for just 2 years before being also removed by another military coup led by Ibrahim Babangida in 1985.Being a military head of state helped him gain fame and write his name in Nigeria's book of history as one of Nigeria's past leaders. This in a way was one of the things that were to make him begin a successful political career in the future after being retired from the army.After spending some time in retirement and seeing the successful political career of a former military general like himself in the person of Olusegun Obasanjo, it only was a matter of time before he was to offer himself again for public service during a time Nigeria's democracy was already growing by choosing to run as an opposition candidate for president. It would seem that Nigerians were still in love or just have respect for military men that they are always willing to vote for them when they run for public office despite the fact that many including the media has consistently blamed the military for many of Nigeria's woes.For Muhammad Buhari, there was probably no other political post more fitting than the office of president and so he did offer himself once again for public office in 2003 by choosing to run as a candidate on the platform of the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP). He was able to get more votes than other opposition candidates but it was not enough to defeat the ruling party whose candidate was also a former military ruler name Olusegun Obasanjo and a party that was then seen as an umbrella party that united different the 3 major tribes in Nigeria. Buhari's party got about 7 million votes less than the incumbent president from the PDP. Reports have it that the PDP got 15,585,538 votes while ANPP got 8,091,783 votesThe PDP had the advantage then because it was backed by people with financial power and was publicly seen as more of a national party than a regional party which the ANPP was seen as. However, the ANPP gradually grew stronger in the north but not in Southern Nigeria.While the ANPP was probably the second strongest political party in Nigeria as at 2003, there was also a growing number of opposition parties in the South such as the Alliance for Democracy and APGA. The AD had more following from Yorubas(South West) while APGA was growing strong among the Igbos in the South East.Buhari did not give up his political ambition and so he decided for a second time to run for office under the platform of the ANPP as their sole consensus candidate in 2007. He ran against another PDP candidate who this time was Yaradua who was also from the same state of origina as Buhari. Yaradua and PDP won the election again by getting 24,638,063 votes with Buhari and the ANPP only getting 6,605,299 votes. Yaradua ran the election with Jonathan Goodluck as his Vice President while Buhari ran with Ume Ezeoke. Goodluck was from the Ijaw tribe in the South South Niger Delta while Ume Ezeoke was from Igbo in South Eastern Nigeria. So, during his second attempt, he fared worse than his first attempt probably as a result of the fact that the PDP were able to penetrate hi stronghold in the north by picking Yaradua while Buhari's ANPP was not able to penetrate into PDP area's in the middle belt and southern regions of Nigeria.After the 2007 elections, Buhari and ANPP parted ways and the retried General sought a new party on which to run his campaign and that was when he helped to found the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), a party which was also not well accepted in Southern and Middle belt Nigeria but did well in the Core north.As a result of his strong willed personality, Muhammadu Buhari again decided to run for president in 2011 under his new party called CPC but this time was to face Jonathan Goodluck who had become president after the death of Yaradua in 2011. It was to be Jonathan's first test of electoral strength and a hard won victory for the PDP since they were facing an already known and strong opponent. However, the PDP and Jonathan were able to get up to 22,495,187 votes while Buhari got a stronger figure of 12,214,853 votes. PDP did not get as much votes from the north as they did during the time of Yaradua but what they got nationwide mostly from the middle belt and Southern Nigeria were enough to win Buhari's CPC which was the strongest regional party Buhari has ever run on for president.Before the 201l election year, the Action Congress had also grown and won many states in the South West region of Nigeria thereby making it also become a regional party with popular support among the Yorubas but it still needed national strength like the PDP in order to win a presidential election. The key had to be in uniting the the CPC and ACN together in order to have a more national appeal. It was to be the biggest and most successful political alliance in the 4th Republic and it was basically a unity between the 2 biggest tribes in Nigeria - Yorubas and Hausa/Fulanis.In 2013, seeing that he could not easily win a Presidential election in Nigeria with only regional votes from the North, Buhari of the CPC decided to join hands with Tinubu of the ACN along with other opposition parties in Nigeria like the ANPP and a faction of APGA to help build the strongest opposition party in Nigeria's history which will be able to challenge the PDP in the 2015 elections. In the past, political alliances between parties have not really worked well as hoped for but the one between the CPC, ACN and other some other opposition parties in 2013 prior to the 2015 elections which led to the registration of a new party known as the APC was destined to be the most successful.The APC was established about 2 years in advance and started a uniform campaign of opposition against the ruling PDP government. It would seem that many people were no longer comfortable with the administration of Goodluck Jonathan and PDP's hold on power since 1999 and so were gradually growing to love the APC's constant outspoken criticism of the government. There was a gradual yearning for change that would positively impact the lives of ordinary Nigerians. However, what broke the camel's back seems to the incessant violent attacks by Boko Haram, a terrorist group that kills innocent people and kidnaps children in the North Western region of Nigeria. The ruling government was mostly blamed for not doing enough to protect the live and properties of people living in that region and so this helped opposition to grow.By 2015, Muhammadu Buhari had already become a more known face in the campaign for presidency and many saw him as the only candidate that could bring about the much needed positive change in Nigeria most especially as it relates to security and corruption which were both preventing Nigeria's wealth from reaching the hands of many people. His new party, the APC, however conducted a primary in Lagos state, a state that had remained stronghold of the AD, AC and the ACN. Buhari won the ticket since he was the most popular candidate and hence campaigns to support him also started gaining strength in the South West and Northern regions.There were also many governors and Senators who betrayed the ruling PDP during those 2 years by joining the APC and this helped swell the numbers in the opposition. The first house to fall into opposition party was the house of representatives as many PDP members had joined the APC and hence the APC members were in the majority. They had benefitted from the PDP since the party got them into power but they soon switched sides when they were no longer in support of what the PDP leaders were doing. Even a former PDP President tore his party's membership card and decided to remain non-partisan. Many then saw that the PDP had bitten more than it can chew and it would only be a matter of time before the opposition would defeat the power of the incumbent.As a result of the alliance which was mostly between the Yoruba dominated ACN and the Hausa dominated CPC, Buhari picked a running mate from the South West named Yemi Osinbajo as his Vice President. This was basically a ticket riding on Buhari's popularity but with blessing from the South West led by Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and his party.The 2015 general elections was later held in March 2015 and the APC won the PDP but not by a wide margin. Nigerians were almost divided in the middle between Buhari and Jonathan. While some still supported the presidency of Jonathan Goodluck, others supported Muhammadu Buhari. Jonathan of the PDP got most of his votes from the Middle belt, South East and South South Nigeria while Buhari got his mostly from the South West, North East, North Central and Norther West.It was the 4th time Buhari was running for president and he scored 15,424,921 votes to win the incumbent President Jonathan Goodluck of the PDP who also got an impressive 12,853,162 votes. The difference was only 2,571,759 in favour of Buhari of the APC. It was also the first time Nigeria was using electronic cards and cards readers for the election. This was the first time in Nigeria's history when an opposition party won a ruling party in Nigeria;s 4th republic or probably since Nigeria became a country.Why did Buhari win the election? Well, I think he won because Jonathan was probably not too eager to continue as president because in Nigeria, incumbent presidents can really do a lot to ensure they keep winning. Some Jonathanians say the election was systematically rigged by the INEC chairman Jega who was also from the north by distributing more cards in the north and pro-Buhari areas than in the South where Jonathan had a stronger following. Others say it's because Jonathan did not do enough to protect the lives of people from Boko Haram. Some say the PDP government is too corrupt and a change is needed for Nigeria to move forward.One question that really needs to be answered is "Will an APC government would really be different from the PDP?". This is considering the fact that the APC was mostly built with politicians that decamped from the PDP even though the party presents the reknown faces from the opposition as their leaders.
The 2015 elections has come and gone but Buhari's win was not as strong as that which the PDP had been winning with in the past. The PDP is still alive and still has a large following in the richest oil states of Nigeria. Nigerians only hope that Buhari will do more than what the PDP has done by ensuring that things like power supply, employment and economic growth would be important aspects of his work before the 2019 elections come to light. Many Nigerians are impatient and want a President that can do a lot even within 4 years of power.
A former military ruler and army General has made history in Nigeria in becoming the first presidential candidate to defeat an incumbent president in a democratic election. How did he do it?Well, it didn't come easy given the fact that this was not his first attempt at winning the top job as a civilian. In fact, he had tried to win majority votes for more than 3 times since 2003. It was probably easier to get into power through a military coup than through votes during a civilian administration.General Muhammaded Buhari first came into power and ruled Nigeria during his youthful days in December 1983 after taking power from a democratically elected civilian government led by a fellow northerner named Shehu Shagari but only ruled for just 2 years before being also removed by another military coup led by Ibrahim Babangida in 1985.Being a military head of state helped him gain fame and write his name in Nigeria's book of history as one of Nigeria's past leaders. This in a way was one of the things that were to make him begin a successful political career in the future after being retired from the army.After spending some time in retirement and seeing the successful political career of a former military general like himself in the person of Olusegun Obasanjo, it only was a matter of time before he was to offer himself again for public service during a time Nigeria's democracy was already growing by choosing to run as an opposition candidate for president. It would seem that Nigerians were still in love or just have respect for military men that they are always willing to vote for them when they run for public office despite the fact that many including the media has consistently blamed the military for many of Nigeria's woes.For Muhammad Buhari, there was probably no other political post more fitting than the office of president and so he did offer himself once again for public office in 2003 by choosing to run as a candidate on the platform of the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP). He was able to get more votes than other opposition candidates but it was not enough to defeat the ruling party whose candidate was also a former military ruler name Olusegun Obasanjo and a party that was then seen as an umbrella party that united different the 3 major tribes in Nigeria. Buhari's party got about 7 million votes less than the incumbent president from the PDP. Reports have it that the PDP got 15,585,538 votes while ANPP got 8,091,783 votesThe PDP had the advantage then because it was backed by people with financial power and was publicly seen as more of a national party than a regional party which the ANPP was seen as. However, the ANPP gradually grew stronger in the north but not in Southern Nigeria.While the ANPP was probably the second strongest political party in Nigeria as at 2003, there was also a growing number of opposition parties in the South such as the Alliance for Democracy and APGA. The AD had more following from Yorubas(South West) while APGA was growing strong among the Igbos in the South East.Buhari did not give up his political ambition and so he decided for a second time to run for office under the platform of the ANPP as their sole consensus candidate in 2007. He ran against another PDP candidate who this time was Yaradua who was also from the same state of origina as Buhari. Yaradua and PDP won the election again by getting 24,638,063 votes with Buhari and the ANPP only getting 6,605,299 votes. Yaradua ran the election with Jonathan Goodluck as his Vice President while Buhari ran with Ume Ezeoke. Goodluck was from the Ijaw tribe in the South South Niger Delta while Ume Ezeoke was from Igbo in South Eastern Nigeria. So, during his second attempt, he fared worse than his first attempt probably as a result of the fact that the PDP were able to penetrate hi stronghold in the north by picking Yaradua while Buhari's ANPP was not able to penetrate into PDP area's in the middle belt and southern regions of Nigeria.After the 2007 elections, Buhari and ANPP parted ways and the retried General sought a new party on which to run his campaign and that was when he helped to found the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), a party which was also not well accepted in Southern and Middle belt Nigeria but did well in the Core north.As a result of his strong willed personality, Muhammadu Buhari again decided to run for president in 2011 under his new party called CPC but this time was to face Jonathan Goodluck who had become president after the death of Yaradua in 2011. It was to be Jonathan's first test of electoral strength and a hard won victory for the PDP since they were facing an already known and strong opponent. However, the PDP and Jonathan were able to get up to 22,495,187 votes while Buhari got a stronger figure of 12,214,853 votes. PDP did not get as much votes from the north as they did during the time of Yaradua but what they got nationwide mostly from the middle belt and Southern Nigeria were enough to win Buhari's CPC which was the strongest regional party Buhari has ever run on for president.Before the 201l election year, the Action Congress had also grown and won many states in the South West region of Nigeria thereby making it also become a regional party with popular support among the Yorubas but it still needed national strength like the PDP in order to win a presidential election. The key had to be in uniting the the CPC and ACN together in order to have a more national appeal. It was to be the biggest and most successful political alliance in the 4th Republic and it was basically a unity between the 2 biggest tribes in Nigeria - Yorubas and Hausa/Fulanis.In 2013, seeing that he could not easily win a Presidential election in Nigeria with only regional votes from the North, Buhari of the CPC decided to join hands with Tinubu of the ACN along with other opposition parties in Nigeria like the ANPP and a faction of APGA to help build the strongest opposition party in Nigeria's history which will be able to challenge the PDP in the 2015 elections. In the past, political alliances between parties have not really worked well as hoped for but the one between the CPC, ACN and other some other opposition parties in 2013 prior to the 2015 elections which led to the registration of a new party known as the APC was destined to be the most successful.The APC was established about 2 years in advance and started a uniform campaign of opposition against the ruling PDP government. It would seem that many people were no longer comfortable with the administration of Goodluck Jonathan and PDP's hold on power since 1999 and so were gradually growing to love the APC's constant outspoken criticism of the government. There was a gradual yearning for change that would positively impact the lives of ordinary Nigerians. However, what broke the camel's back seems to the incessant violent attacks by Boko Haram, a terrorist group that kills innocent people and kidnaps children in the North Western region of Nigeria. The ruling government was mostly blamed for not doing enough to protect the live and properties of people living in that region and so this helped opposition to grow.By 2015, Muhammadu Buhari had already become a more known face in the campaign for presidency and many saw him as the only candidate that could bring about the much needed positive change in Nigeria most especially as it relates to security and corruption which were both preventing Nigeria's wealth from reaching the hands of many people. His new party, the APC, however conducted a primary in Lagos state, a state that had remained stronghold of the AD, AC and the ACN. Buhari won the ticket since he was the most popular candidate and hence campaigns to support him also started gaining strength in the South West and Northern regions.There were also many governors and Senators who betrayed the ruling PDP during those 2 years by joining the APC and this helped swell the numbers in the opposition. The first house to fall into opposition party was the house of representatives as many PDP members had joined the APC and hence the APC members were in the majority. They had benefitted from the PDP since the party got them into power but they soon switched sides when they were no longer in support of what the PDP leaders were doing. Even a former PDP President tore his party's membership card and decided to remain non-partisan. Many then saw that the PDP had bitten more than it can chew and it would only be a matter of time before the opposition would defeat the power of the incumbent.As a result of the alliance which was mostly between the Yoruba dominated ACN and the Hausa dominated CPC, Buhari picked a running mate from the South West named Yemi Osinbajo as his Vice President. This was basically a ticket riding on Buhari's popularity but with blessing from the South West led by Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and his party.The 2015 general elections was later held in March 2015 and the APC won the PDP but not by a wide margin. Nigerians were almost divided in the middle between Buhari and Jonathan. While some still supported the presidency of Jonathan Goodluck, others supported Muhammadu Buhari. Jonathan of the PDP got most of his votes from the Middle belt, South East and South South Nigeria while Buhari got his mostly from the South West, North East, North Central and Norther West.It was the 4th time Buhari was running for president and he scored 15,424,921 votes to win the incumbent President Jonathan Goodluck of the PDP who also got an impressive 12,853,162 votes. The difference was only 2,571,759 in favour of Buhari of the APC. It was also the first time Nigeria was using electronic cards and cards readers for the election. This was the first time in Nigeria's history when an opposition party won a ruling party in Nigeria;s 4th republic or probably since Nigeria became a country.Why did Buhari win the election? Well, I think he won because Jonathan was probably not too eager to continue as president because in Nigeria, incumbent presidents can really do a lot to ensure they keep winning. Some Jonathanians say the election was systematically rigged by the INEC chairman Jega who was also from the north by distributing more cards in the north and pro-Buhari areas than in the South where Jonathan had a stronger following. Others say it's because Jonathan did not do enough to protect the lives of people from Boko Haram. Some say the PDP government is too corrupt and a change is needed for Nigeria to move forward.One question that really needs to be answered is "Will an APC government would really be different from the PDP?". This is considering the fact that the APC was mostly built with politicians that decamped from the PDP even though the party presents the reknown faces from the opposition as their leaders.
The 2015 elections has come and gone but Buhari's win was not as strong as that which the PDP had been winning with in the past. The PDP is still alive and still has a large following in the richest oil states of Nigeria. Nigerians only hope that Buhari will do more than what the PDP has done by ensuring that things like power supply, employment and economic growth would be important aspects of his work before the 2019 elections come to light. Many Nigerians are impatient and want a President that can do a lot even within 4 years of power.